After a year of tariffs, turbulence, and tightening demand, industry insiders weigh in on what comes next
The past 12 months have given the watch world plenty to fret about: punishing tariffs, staggering gold prices, confusing economic signals, a weakened dollar.
“We are kind of in the perfect storm,” Georges Kern, chief executive of Breitling, said during a roundtable discussion at Dubai Watch Week. “In my 30 years in the industry, this situation has been the most complicated. I’m a cyclist. Everyone can cycle flat. You see who is performing when going uphill.”
Will the road level out in 2026? How will tariffs evolve? Will the watch auction market continue to elevate F.P. Journe into the stratosphere? What will Rolex introduce at Watches and Wonders? Will the obsession with shaped cases and stone dials wane?
These are just some of our questions. For answers, we reached out to a handful of trusted sources. Here’s what they told us:
Oliver R. Müller, founder, LuxeConsult in Aubonne, Switzerland
“We are finishing a year that many hadn’t expected to be as challenging as it was in the end. Unfortunately, 2026 won’t bring the magic twist that some are trying to talk into reality. China is still suffering mainly from a real estate crisis impacting luxury consumption and the U.S. market won’t be growing as strongly as it did for the last four years. The positive news is that brands are a lot more creative than they used to be both in design and mechanical conceptions. Competition is tough because there are too many brands competing for a shrinking number of clients.
“The long-term trends haven’t changed for a decade; they are premiumisation and polarisation. A handful of brands—the ‘Big Four’ (Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille) plus Cartier—are over performing the market and capturing more than half of it. This performance is hiding the vast number of brands that are underperforming and struggling. Those with a strong brand, clearly identifiable icons, and coherent pricing will continue to move forward. The others will have to choose: Adapt quickly or keep explaining that ‘the recovery is coming.’”
Sean Song, vintage and pre-owned watch dealer, S.Song Watches in Kuala Lumpur
“In 2026, design-driven watches will continue to dominate even more so as rare and unusual vintage shapes will begin to emerge. Watches with unique case finishes, special dials, and intricate bracelets will be very popular. Vintage ladies’ watches seem to be an untapped market with extremely decorative and intricate designs from the ’70s and ’80s remaining very accessible.
“I also think 2026 will see the reemergence of A. Lange & Söhne watches in the used market, especially early and rare examples. For the last few years, retail prices of new, high-end watches from Patek, Vacheron, and Lange have been sky high, with the used Lange market being significantly soft. I think collectors will finally notice the huge gap in pricing and pounce on what are, essentially, low quantity, extremely well-finished watches. A special mention goes to early Langes on Wellendorf bracelets. In my opinion, these are some of the most beautifully intricate bracelets ever made.”
Paul Engel, collector and founder, Aircooltime in Colorado
“Looking ahead to 2026, I expect to see more consistently renewed strength for truly iconic, top condition vintage Rolex sport models after several years of broader market softness. Condition and originality in the vintage space—particularly for brands like Patek Philippe and Rolex—will continue to drive meaningful price separation at the top end. The price of gold is also likely to have an impact, especially on less-collected brands and references.
“While my focus is vintage, the modern market bears watching: The rapid rise of F.P. Journe may begin to cool a bit after the dramatic auction results of 2025. We’ve also seen elevated prices for some independent brands without long track records, and as the segment matures, I expect greater price discrimination in favor of independents with proven history, reputation, and market presence.”
Asher Rapkin, cofounder, Collective Horology in Ventura, Calif.
“In 2026, I suspect we will see changes in ownership on the indie front. This could cut both ways—in some ways, independents with tremendous ability and potential that have been put under financial pressure due to the economic realities of 2025 may seek additional funding, and maybe even be up for purchase. Depending on who purchases them, this could result in a massive cash influx that leads to tremendous innovation, or it could lead to some seriously poor outcomes if the people who invest take the brand in directions that collectors dislike in pursuit of profitability. Fine watches are, above all, art and when art and finance collide, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. Personally, I’m hopeful that some consolidation will lead to more security for watchmakers.”
Yoni Ben-Yehuda, head of watches, Material Good in New York City
“We’ll continue to see colour—bold colours, unexpected colours. Brands are becoming a bit more playful with their animations of dials and cases and their use of alternative materials—and alternative materials with colour—so I think that will continue. People are going to get a little more emboldened. That’ll be fun because collectors, especially in the United States, are really enjoying things that look and feel different than the norm.
“Independent brands will continue to penetrate the market and the zeitgeist of collecting in a meaningful way, and more so in the next few years as the younger independents become more established in their watchmaking abilities and also established in their infrastructure and supply chain, etc.
“I also think we’ll see some new vintage timepieces featured in the collecting orbit. I feel like we’re giving away the secret sauce a little bit, but I think you’re going to see a huge resurgence of Bamboo watches from Audemars Piguet along with the Cobra—the 5403 reference—in several different iterations. Those are starting to creep into the mainstream. Also, a continued look towards some forgotten complications like jumping hours and second time zones, dual times, travel times, GMTs.”
This story was first published on Robb Report USA. Featured photo by Cartier/Richard Mille/Patek Philippe